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Our forecasts

All forecasts at a glance

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Editorial

Macro

Macro | Solid over all

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

  Region 2017F 2018F

United States

2.1

2.3

Eurozone

1.8

1.6

United Kingdom

1.6

1.3

Japan

1.1

1.5

China

6.5

6.3

World

3.5

3.7

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

  Region 2017F 2018F

United States

3.2

3.4

Eurozone

1.5

1.5

United Kingdom

3.3

3.5

Japan

5.2

5.0

China

3.4

3.2

Consumer price inflation (in %)

  Region 2017F 2018F

United States1

1.7

1.9

Eurozone

1.6

1.4

United Kingdom

2.7

2.5

Japan

0.7

1.0

China

2.2

2.5

1 core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

Current-account balance (in % of GDP)

  Region 2017F 2018F

United States

-2.9

-3.1

Eurozone

2.9

2.7

United Kingdom

-3.5

-3.5

Japan

3.2

3.2

China

2.2

2.4

Benchmark rates (in %)

  Region Current* Mar 2018F

United States

1.00-1.25

1.50-1.75

Eurozone

0.00

0.00

United Kingdom

0.25

0.25

Japan

0.00

0.00

China

4.35

4.35

Commodities (in U.S. dollars)

  Current* Jun 2018F

Crude oil (WTI)

46

50

Gold

1,242

1,200

Copper (LME)

5,937

5,000

* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 6/30/17
F refers to our forecast as of 6/22/17
WTI = West Texas Intermediate; LME = London Metal Exchange
The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend
, a sideways trend or a downward trend .
Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17

Equities

Equities | Regional shifts

  Current* June 2018F Exp. total return (in %)** Exp. earnings growth (in %) P/E impact (in %) Dividend yield (in %)

United
States
(S&P 500
Index
)

2,423

2,450

3.4

10

-8

2.3

Europe
(Stoxx
Europe
600 Index
)

379

400

9.1

12

-7

3.7

Eurozone
(Euro
Stoxx 50
Index
)

3,442

3,650

9.8

11

-5

3.8

Germany
(Dax)1

12,325

13,400

8.7

9

-4

3.1

United
Kingdom
(FTSE 100
Index
)

7,313

7,500

5.4

12

-9

4.2

Switzerland
(Swiss
Market
Index
)

8,907

8,750

1.5

10

-11

3.3

Japan
(MSCI
Japan
Index
)

959

970

3.5

12

-10

2.3

MSCI
Emerging
Markets
Index
(USD)

1,011

1,050

6.6

14

-8

2.7

MSCI AC
Asia ex
Japan
Index
(USD)

625

660

8.1

16

-9

2.6

MSCI EM
Latin
America
Index
(USD)

2,544

2,550

3.1

17

-13

2.9

F refers to our forecasts as of 6/22/17
Equity indices, exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend
, a sideways trend or a downward trend .
The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors.
positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
* Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc.; as of 6/30/17
** Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable
1 Total-return index (includes dividends)
Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17

Fixed Income

Fixed Income | Only small rises in interest rates

  Current* Jun 2018F

United States

U.S. Treasuries (10-year)

2.30%

2.60%

U.S. municipal bonds

85%

93%

U.S. investment-grade corporates

103 bp

100 bp

U.S. high-yield corporates

364 bp

380 bp

Securitized: mortgage-backed securities1

87 bp

100 bp

Europe

German Bunds (10-year)

0.47%

0.80%

UK Gilts (10-year)

1.26%

1.40%

Euro investment-grade corporates2

108 bp

100 bp

Euro high-yield corporates2

268 bp

290 bp

Securitized: covered bonds

46 bp

75 bp

Italy (10-year)2

168 bp

180 bp

Asia-Pacific

Japanese government bonds (10-year)

0.09%

0.10%

Asia credit

232 bp

225 bp

Global

Emerging-market sovereigns

308 bp

285 bp

Emerging-market credit

306 bp

280 bp

F refers to our forecasts as of 6/22/17; bp = basis points
For sovereign bonds,
denotes rising yields, unchanged yields and falling yields. For corporates, securitized/specialties and emerging-market bonds, the arrows depict the option-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasuries. depicts a rising spread, a sideways trend and a falling spread.
The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors.
positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 6/30/17
1 Current-coupon spread vs. 7-year U.S. Treasuries
2 Spread over German Bunds
Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17

Currencies

  Current* Jun 2018F

EUR vs. USD

1.14

1.10

USD vs. JPY

112.4

115.0

EUR vs. GBP

0.88

0.89

GBP vs. USD

1.30

1.23

USD vs. CNY

6.78

6.90

* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 6/30/17
F refers to our forecasts as of 6/22/17
Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17

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