This website uses cookies in order to improve user experience. If you close this box or continue browsing, we will assume that you are happy with this. For more information about the cookies we use or to find out how you can disable cookies, see our Cookies Notice.

Chart of the week

Who has most to lose, if the Trump administration plunges the world into a serious trade conflict?

The world is edging closer towards a serious trade conflict. Recently, the Trump administration has been shifting gear from saber-rattling to escalating tariffs between the United States and China. Who has most to lose, if things truly get out of hand?

One way to answer this might be to look at the trade-related shares of gross domestic product (GDP) in various nations. Another would be to look at the share of nations exports destined for American buyers. Conveniently our "Chart of the Week" captures both. It shows that Mexico and Canada are arguably most exposed. And, contrary to what the Trump administration appears to think, trade is not a zero-sum game. When a nation suffers losses from trade skirmishes, so do its neighbors. In the case of North America, that means the United States. By trying to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and undermining the rules-based global trade order, the Trump administration is already sowing a lot of uncertainty. If it keeps going, North America as a whole could well emerge as the biggest loser – especially if the rest of the world continues to stand up for the trade rules the United States long used to champion.

Sources: World Trade Organization (WTO), Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH as of 12/31/16

Related Articles

Jul 13, 2018 New Chart of the week

Chart of the week

China's monetary base looks set to grow faster again soon

Jul 06, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

On trade, the Trump administration might have some powerful allies.

Jul 03, 2018 Investment Traffic Lights

Investment Traffic Lights

Our tactical and strategic view

Jul 03, 2018 CIO Special

Dollar pros and cons

The dollar has already reached our target. Currently, the arguments are balanced.

Jun 29, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

Do weak currencies hurt emerging markets?

Jun 21, 2018 Macro Outlook

Ten years after

The long reach of the financial crisis

Jun 15, 2018 Americas CIO View

Americas CIO View

Inflation: Sometimes it skips a generation

Jun 15, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the Week

Looking at real federal funds rates, not a lot has happened after 7 hikes

Jun 08, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

In some areas, Italy is actually doing quite well

Jun 04, 2018 Investment Traffic Lights

Investment Traffic Lights

Our tactical and strategic view

Jun 01, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the Week

Why emerging markets may be less vulnerable than they used to be

May 29, 2018 CIO Flash

Euro crisis 2.0?

Italy's political woes are dragging down markets while boosting our dollar call.

May 25, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

A tale of two economies in the Eurozone periphery

May 24, 2018 CIO Flash

Italy's new coalition

Italian political turmoil might prove less worrisome than many think.

May 18, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

Even U.S. corporations fear the impact of Donald Trump's trade politics

May 17, 2018 CIO Special

Free trade under attack

Common misconceptions and lessons for investors

May 17, 2018 Macro Outlook

A Closer Look

U.S. fiscal prospects: daunting challenges

May 11, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

Slowly, but surely inflation expectations are creeping up

Feedback

Please let us know what you think about this article/page.