This website uses cookies in order to improve user experience. If you close this box or continue browsing, we will assume that you are happy with this. For more information about the cookies we use or to find out how you can disable cookies, see our Cookies Notice.

Chart of the week

For the S&P 500, this has already been the second longest period without a pullback of more than 5% since 1970. What next?

What to make of the recent gains on Wall Street? One way to gauge the strength of the bull market is to ask how much the market has risen since the last correction. Another measure might be how much time has passed. The two lead startling different conclusions, as our "Chart of the Week" shows.

Late in June 2016, right after the Brexit referendum, the U.S. equity market dropped by more than 5%. Until today, this marked the last pullback of the S&P 500 by at least 5%. After 487 (calendar) days without a decline by 5% or more, this ranks now as the second longest such episode since 1970. There was only one period between December 1994 and May 1996 when the market managed to rise for longer, without dropping by 5 % or more in between. If the S&P 500 continues to avoid falling by more than 5% until December 13th this year, we would even have experienced the longest such episode. In terms of index gains, however, our current streak ranks only 13th since 1970: between December 1994 and May 1996, the S&P 500 rose by 52.3%, almost twice as much as the recent gains.

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH, as of 10/26/17

* ranking according to duration

Related Articles

May 24, 2018 New Macro Outlook

Italy's new coalition

Italian political turmoil might prove less worrisome than many think.

May 24, 2018 New Equity

Americas CIO View

Oil near normal, Energy profits still below, but limited upside

May 18, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

Even U.S. corporations fear the impact of Donald Trump's trade politics

May 09, 2018

Americas CIO View

Neither higher wages, oil, nor federal funds rates threaten margins

May 03, 2018 Focus Topic

Rising interest rates

Will rates unrattle equity markets?

May 03, 2018 Investment Traffic Lights

Investment traffic lights

Our tactical and strategic view

Apr 30, 2018 Equity

Americas CIO View

Volatility: Be contrarian short-term, but respect it longer-term

Apr 24, 2018 Equity

Americas CIO View

Sizing up Banks and Tech

Apr 17, 2018 Multi Asset

Managing volatility

The markets' increased volatility should be manageable.

Apr 17, 2018 Letter to Investors

One more year

Markets are shaky, but a bear market is unlikely without recession.

Apr 17, 2018 Forecasts

Our forecasts

All forecasts at a glance

Apr 16, 2018 Equity

Hold your nerve

Based on our growth and interest-rate forecasts, we remain bullish on stocks.

Apr 16, 2018 Equity

Americas CIO View

Economic EPS growth: Does any region have it this cycle?

Apr 11, 2018 Equity

Americas CIO View

Welcome earnings season: 1Q S&P EPS growth likely 20%+

Apr 03, 2018 Investment Traffic Lights

Investment traffic lights

Our tactical and strategic view

Mar 19, 2018 Multi Asset

Normality for volatility

Goldilocks economy showing cracks, volatility on the rise – but not too sharply.

Mar 16, 2018 Chart of the week

Chart of the week

The close relationship between stock prices and corporate earnings

Mar 01, 2018 Investment Traffic Lights

Investment traffic lights

Our tactical and strategic view

Feedback

Please let us know what you think about this article/page.