Europe’s time to shine

The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 13, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Trump’s tariffs continue to dominate markets and geopolitics, Chinese President Xi embarks on Asia tour, the ECB decides on interest rates, and Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook

Pessimistic stock market sentiment

Market sentiment tumbles into “panic territory” after reciprocal tariffs announcement on “Liberation Day.”

By: Maria Milina, Michael Lewis

From the margins to the mainstream.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 6, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Trump’s tariffs go into effect as China and EU move to retaliate, Netanyahu meets with Trump on Iran and tariffs, and markets look to Fed minutes for guidance.

When businesses stop investing

So far, Trump’s tariff threats are mainly harming sentiment. That could change quite quickly, in ways that would be hard to undo or mitigate.

Trump’s Tariffs: Is Free Trade a Thing of the Past?

The imposed tariffs by the Trump administration turned out significantly higher than initially expected

APAC CIO View

China Banks: Signs of Bottoming Out

Germany’s emissions fall but more is needed

Continued reductions in greenhouse gas emissions make Germany’s 2030 targets look achievable given continuing efforts – amid a still concerning global picture.

Americas CIO View

Tariff Disturbances: More uncertainty on trade and to what end?

Our forecasts

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

U.S. confusion and European revival

By: Vincenzo Vedda

Since Trump took office, U.S. stocks have plunged – his tariff policy worries many. Now there are doubts about growth in the U.S. but hopes for higher growth in Europe. A trend reversal? Nothing is too certain.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 23, 2025

U.S.-led Ukraine peace talks resume in Saudi Arabia, Trump officials to make a “private visit” to Greenland, Canada’s Carney calls snap elections,  China hosts two major economic forums, and it is a heavy week of economic reports.

Learning to live with Trump

Nothing is all that certain in Washington these days. This was the backdrop against which we developed the latest update to our strategic 12-month outlook.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 16, 2025

European leaders gather to discuss European defense and security planning, Trump gathers oil CEOs, U.S.-Russian shuttle diplomacy continues, and the U.S., Japan, and UK central banks meet on interest rates.