Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead| April 29, 2024

Congress returns to work this week after taking last week off for the Passover holiday. This week also gave House Republicans time to reflect on whether they want to move on the Motion to Vacate the Chair made by Representative Marjorie Taylor Green (R-GA) to evict Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) from the Speakership some weeks ago, which has subsequently been endorsed by several other House Republicans.

What does Congress have left to do in 2024?

Before we get to the odds of Johnson's political future, let's first look at what Congress has left to do for the rest of the year. While many important pieces of legislation are still on the table for Congress to take up, none are critical. The last "critical" piece of legislation that was a "must do" was the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan military aid package, which the House and Senate voted to approve two weeks ago (and the same legislation that triggered Congresswoman Green's Motion to Vacate the Chair). 

The important pieces of legislation still to be done include:

• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reauthorization bill: The FAA bill is time-sensitive because Congress only has until May 10th before the current authorization expires.
• Farm Bill: The Farm Bill is always important because it is the Farm Bill, and a good portion of the American farming community – many in election battleground states – depend on its components. We will be tracking the Farm bill more closely once it gets rolling. We estimate that we will see a text of the legislation emerge from the House Agriculture Committee around Memorial Day.
• Others: We do expect to see some hard efforts to made in the coming weeks and months (which we will be covering) at broadband legislation, crypto regulatory legislation, reviving the currently moribund tax reform bill, and numerous other “cats and dogs.” What will be important to keep an eye on is if any of these lesser pieces of legislation get attached to either the FAA reauthorization or the Farm Bill as both are seen as highly likely to successfully get done this year.

Beyond that, we expect a slew of “messaging bills” – legislation crafted more to make a political point ahead of the elections than having any real chance of passage. And with them congressional hearings in both chambers which will less policy-impactful than voter-impactful.

Will Speaker Johnson lose his job?

Turning back to Speaker Johnson and the risk of being voted out: For now, it appears former President Donald Trump wants Johnson to stay as Speaker and that intra-party feuding in the House be minimal. But so far, Representative Green seems not to be listening  as we have seen media interview after media interview where Green re-announces her intention to go after Johnson. If she makes the motion, it could come any time this week or next. Beyond this timeframe, the odds of her moving on the motion to be significantly diminished. 

We also expect internal Republican pressure on her to step back from the threat to intensify behind the scenes. And regardless of what Green and other House Republicans think of Johnson and his performance, the single biggest concern for Trump and Republicans overall is that Republicans technically have a one-seat majority in the House (we say technically because Representative Donald Payne (D-NJ) died last week and a special election will likely need to be called to fill his seat which is considered a safely Democratic). 

The worst thing for Trump going into November is to watch House Republicans push Johnson out of the Speakership, lose another Republican member, and, in a historic first, have Democrats gain control of the Speakership and the House by Republican political suicide. Such a flip would also allow Democrats to instantly end every investigation House Republicans are attempting to execute against President Biden, Hunter Biden, and other family members. It would also allow Democrats to flip the script and begin investigating former President Trump in parallel to the numerous court cases he faces.