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Macro
A year of two halves
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 2.3 | | 0.8 |
| Eurozone | 0.7 | | 0.7 |
| United Kingdom | 0.5 | | 0.6 |
| Japan | 2.1 | | 1.0 |
| China | 5.2 | 4.7 | |
| World | 3.0 | | 2.8 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 6.0 | | 6.0 |
| Eurozone | 2.9 | | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 5.2 | | 4.5 |
| Japan | 6.0 | | 4.5 |
| China | 7.4 | | 7.2 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States[1] | 4.2 | | 2.8 |
| Eurozone | 5.7 | | 2.9 |
| United Kingdom | 7.3 | | 2.6 |
| Japan | 3.2 | | 1.9 |
| China | 0.5 | 1.8 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 3.9 | 4.3 | |
| Eurozone | 6.5 | | 6.5 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0 | 4.5 | |
| Japan | 2.6 | | 2.4 |
| China | 5.0 | | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Dec 24F |
|
| United States | 5.25-5.50 | | 4.50-4.75 |
| Eurozone | 4.00 | | 3.25 |
| United Kingdom | 5.25 | | 4.75 |
| Japan | -0.10 | 0.25 | |
| China | 3.45 | | 3.15 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[3] |
Dec 24F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 83.0 | 88 | |
| Gold | 1,946 | 2,250 | |
| Copper (LME) | 7,985 | 9,050 |
Equities
Looking through the tunnel
Current[4] |
Dec 2024F |
Total Return (exp.)[5] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
4,503 | | 4,700 | 5.2% | 10% | -7% | 1.7% |
|
Europe |
455 | | 465 | 5.7% | 4% | -2% | 3.6% |
|
Eurozone |
4,316 | | 4,400 | 4.1% | 4% | -4% | 3.7% |
|
Germany |
15,748 | | 16,600 | 4.4% | 4% | -4% | 3.6% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,487 | | 7,400 | 3.4% | 4% | -5% | 4.5% |
|
Switzerland |
10,708 | | 10,700 | 4.8% | 7% | -5% | 3.2% |
|
Japan |
1,458 | | 1,520 | 6.5% | 6% | -2% | 2.3% |
| 984 | | 1,010 | 6.3% | 11% | -8% | 2.9% | |
| 621 | | 640 | 6.6% | 13% | -9% | 2.6% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/15/23
Fixed Income
A good year for bonds ahead
Current[2] |
Dec 2024F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 4.53% | 4.20% | |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7] | 231 bp | 225 bp | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[7] | 110 bp | 105 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[7] | 381 bp | 450 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] | 156 bp | 120 bp | |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.64% | 2.70% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.23% | 4.20% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[9] | 146 bp | 110 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[9] | 456 bp | 450 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[9] | 78 bp | 70 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[9] | 179 bp | 220 bp | |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.80% | 1.15% | |
| Asia credit | 269 bp | 280 bp | |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 428 bp | 440 bp | |
| Emerging-market credit | 329 bp | 325 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
