- Home »
- Insights »
- Global CIO View »
- CIO View Quarterly »
- Our forecasts
to read
Macro
Growth above potential in 2022
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2021F |
2022F |
|
| United States | 5.6 | Â | 4.0 |
| Eurozone | 5.0 | Â | 4.6 |
| United Kingdom | 6.8 | Â | 4.5 |
| Japan | 1.9 | Â | 2.9 |
| China | 7.7 | Â | 5.3 |
| World | 5.6 | Â | 4.5 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2021F |
2022F |
|
| United States | 14.1 | Â | 6.3 |
| Eurozone | 7.0 | Â | 4.2 |
| United Kingdom | 9.5 | Â | 6.5 |
| Japan | 7.0 | Â | 4.5 |
| China | 7.5 | Â | 6.8 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2021F |
2022F |
|
| United States[1] | 3.7 | Â | 2.8 |
| Eurozone | 2.5 | Â | 2.6 |
| United Kingdom | 2.4 | Â | 3.7 |
| Japan | -0.2 | Â | 0.8 |
| China | 1.0 | Â | 2.2 |
Current-account balance (in % of GDP) |
2021F |
2022F |
|
| United States | -3.6 | Â | -3.3 |
| Eurozone | 1.8 | Â | 1.8 |
| United Kingdom | -3.4 | Â | -3.5 |
| Japan | 3.7 | Â | 3.5 |
| China | 1.6 | Â | 1.5 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Dec 2022F |
|
| United States | 0.00-0.25 | Â | 0.25-0.50 |
| Eurozone | -0.50 | Â | -0.50 |
| United Kingdom | 0.10 | Â | 0.75 |
| Japan | 0.00 | Â | 0.00 |
| China | 3.85 | Â | 3.85 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[2] |
Dec 2022F |
|
| Crude oil (WTI 12M forward) | 76.6 | Â | 70 |
| Gold | 1,859 | Â | 1,750 |
| Copper (LME) | 9,442 | Â | 10,000 |
Equities
Fourth positive year ahead?
Current[3] |
Dec 2022F |
Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
4,705 | ‌ | 5,000 | 7.7% | 7% | -1% | 1.5% |
|
Europe |
488 | ‌ | 510 | 7.7% | 8% | -3% | 3.1% |
|
Eurozone |
4,384 | ‌ | 4,600 | 8.0% | 9% | -4% | 3.0% |
|
Germany |
16,222 | ‌ | 17,000 | 4.8% | 8% | -6% | 2.8% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,256 | ‌ | 7,350 | 5.6% | 0% | 1% | 4.3% |
|
Switzerland |
12,553 | ‌ | 13,000 | 6.6% | 10% | -6% | 3.1% |
|
Japan |
1,258 | ‌ | 1,350 | 9.2% | 12% | -5% | 2.4% |
| 1,274 | ‌ | 1,340 | 8.3% | 8% | -3% | 2.9% | |
| 820 | ‌ | 885 | 10.7% | 9% | -1% | 2.4% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/18/21
Fixed Income
Inflation worries and volatility
Current[2] |
Dec 2022F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 1.59% | Â | 2.00% |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[6] | Â 183 bp | Â | 200 bp |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates | 86 bp | Â | 70 bp |
| U.S. high-yield corporates | 298 bp | Â | 290 bp |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] | 6 bp |  | 15 bp |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | -0.28% | Â | 0.20% |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 0.93% | Â | 1.25% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[8] | 111 bp | Â | 75 bp |
| Euro high-yield corporates[8] | 333 bp | Â | 290 bp |
| Securitized: covered bonds[8] | 47 bp | Â | 35 bp |
| Italy (10-year)[8] | 120 bp | Â | 150 bp |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.08% | Â | 0.20% |
| Asia credit | 294 bp | Â | 275 bp |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 358 bp | Â | 320 bp |
| Emerging-market credit | 320 bp | Â | 290 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: Â positive return potential for long-only investors. Â limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. Â negative return potential for long-only investors.
