11-Sep-23 Forecasts

Our forecasts

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

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Macro

Resilient labor markets

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2023F

2024F

United States 2.0 ‌ 0.4
Eurozone 0.8 ‌ 0.9
United Kingdom 0.3 ‌ 0.7
Japan 2.1 ‌ 1.1
China 4.8   4.5
World 2.9 ‌ 2.7

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2023F

2024F

United States 5.6 ‌ 5.6
Eurozone 3.2 ‌ 2.7
United Kingdom 5.8 ‌ 5.3
Japan 6.0 ‌ 4.5
China 6.9 ‌ 6.4

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2023F

2024F

United States[1] 4.1 ‌ 2.6
Eurozone 5.7 ‌ 2.5
United Kingdom 7.4 ‌ 2.6
Japan 2.9 ‌ 1.9
China 0.5   2.0

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2023F

2024F

United States 3.7   4.3
Eurozone 6.7 ‌ 6.7
United Kingdom 4.0   4.5
Japan 2.5 ‌ 2.4
China 5.3 ‌ 5.1

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current[2]

Sep 24F

United States 5.25-5.50 ‌ 4.75-5.0
Eurozone 3.75 ‌ 3.50
United Kingdom 5.25 ‌ 5.00
Japan -0.10   0.10
China 3.45 ‌ 3.15

Commodities (in dollars)

Current[3]

Sep 24F

Crude oil (Brent) 89.9   88
Gold 1,920   2,150
Copper (LME) 8,321   8,800

Equities

Some growth, some value

Current[4]

Sep 2024F

Total Return (exp.)[5]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

4,451 ‌ 4,500 2.7% 5% -4% 1.6%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

454 ‌ 470 7.2% 3% 0% 3.6%

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

4,221 ‌ 4,350 6.8% 3% 0% 3.8%

Germany
(DAX)[6]

15,719 ‌ 16,700 6.4% 4% -1% 3.7%

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

7,442 ‌ 7,400 3.7% 1% -2% 4.3%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

10,993 ‌ 11,300 6.3% 9% -6% 3.3%

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

1,456 ‌ 1,500 5.3% 5% -2% 2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(USD)

974 ‌ 1,010 6.6% 3% 0% 2.8%

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index
(USD)

620 ‌ 655 8.2% 6% 0% 2.5%

F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 09/07/23

Fixed Income

 Yields – data dependent

Current[2]

Sep 2024F

United States
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 4.24%   4.20%
U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7]  231 bp   225 bp
U.S. investment-grade corporates[7] 111 bp   95 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates[7] 376 bp   450 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] 54 bp   120 bp 
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) 2.61%   2.70%
UK Gilts (10-year) 4.45%   4.10%
Euro investment-grade corporates[9] 168 bp   110 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[9] 494 bp   450 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[9] 92 bp   70 bp
Italy (10-year)[9] 173 bp   200 bp
Asia-Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year) 0.66%   0.75%
Asia credit 297 bp   280 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 425 bp   440 bp
Emerging-market credit 347 bp   325 bp

Currencies

Current[2]

Sep 2024F

EUR vs. USD 1.07   1.12
USD vs. JPY 147   135
EUR vs. GBP 0.86   0.86
GBP vs. USD 1.25   1.30
USD vs. CNY 7.33   7.20


F refers to our forecasts as of 09/07/23
WTI = West Texas Intermediate
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend   or a downward trend  .
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  positive return potential for long-only investors.  limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  negative return potential for long-only investors.

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1. core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

2. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 09/07/23

3. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 09/07/23

4. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 09/07/23

5. Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable

6. Total-return index (includes dividends)

7. Spread over U.S. Treasuries

8. Bloomberg Barclays MBS Forward Index

9. Spread over German Bunds

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