19-Jun-24 Forecasts

Our forecasts

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Macro

Further normalization

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2024F

2025F

United States 2.0 1.6
Eurozone 0.7 1.1
United Kingdom 0.7 1.3
Japan 0.3 1.4
China 5.0   4.4
World 3.1 3.2

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2024F

2025F

United States 6.0 5.9
Eurozone 2.8 2.7
United Kingdom 4.0 3.5
Japan 5.0 3.0
China 13.3 13

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2024F

2025F

United States[1] 3.0 2.3
Eurozone 2.5 2.3
United Kingdom 2.5 2.3
Japan 2.5 2.0
China 0.6   1.7

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2024F

2025F

United States 4.0   4.1
Eurozone 6.7 6.5
United Kingdom 4.4   4.6
Japan 2.4 2.3
China 5.0 5.0

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current[2]

June 25F

United States 5.25-5.50 4.50-4.75
Eurozone 3.75 3.00
United Kingdom 5.25 4.25
Japan 0.10   0.50
China 3.45 3.10

Commodities (in dollars)

Current[2]

June 25F

Crude oil (Brent) 83.0 80
Gold 2,312   2,600
Copper (LME) 10,400 10,100
Carbon 70   80

Equities

Diversifying from US-AI boom

Current[3]

June 2025F

Forcast

Total Return (exp.)[4]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

5,434 5,600 4.5% 11% -8% 1.5%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

516 530 6.4% 5% -2% 3.3%

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

4,936 5,100 7.8% 4% 0% 3.3%

Germany
(DAX)[5]

18,266 19,600 8.0% 8% -3% 3.3%

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

8,164 8,200 4.4% 1% 0% 3.8%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

12,096 11,900 1.6% 10% -11% 3.0%

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

1,692 1,760 6.0% 10% -6% 2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(USD)

1,076 1,100 5.1% 13% -11% 2.9%

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index
(USD)

694 710 5.0% 15% -12% 2.6%

F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 06/13/24

Fixed Income

3 cuts in 12 months

Current[2]

June 2025F

United States
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 4.24%   4.25%
U.S. municipal bonds[6]  67 bp   75 bp
U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] 85 bp   80 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates[6] 312 bp   400 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6] 145 bp   120 bp 
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) 2.47%   2.60%
UK Gilts (10-year) 4.12%   4.20%
Euro investment-grade corporates[7] 111 bp   95 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[7] 342 bp   400 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[7] 62 bp   50 bp
Italy (10-year)[7] 147 bp   180 bp
Asia- Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year)   0.98%   1.40%
Asia credit 222 bp   200 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 391 bp   390 bp

Currencies

Current[2]

June 2025F

EUR vs. USD 1.08 1.08
USD vs. JPY 157   150
EUR vs. GBP 0.84   0.85
GBP vs. USD 1.28   1.27
USD vs. CNY 7.30   7.35


F refers to our forecasts as of 06/13/2024
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend   or a downward trend  .
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  positive return potential for long-only investors.  limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  negative return potential for long-only investors.

Massively growing demand for natural resources

Increasing consumption in modern consumer society poses an ever-growing global challenge.
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1. core rate, personal consumption expenditure as end of Dec 2024/Dec 2025 in % (no average as for the other figures in the table)

2. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 06/13/24

3. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 06/13/24

4. Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable

5. Total-return index (includes dividends)

6. Spread over U.S. Treasuries

7. Spread over German Bunds

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