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Macro
EUZ-US divergence in 24 and 25
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 1.8 | | 1.6 |
| Eurozone | 0.7 | | 1.1 |
| United Kingdom | 0.4 | | 1.3 |
| Japan | 0.5 | | 1.1 |
| China | 4.8 | 4.4 | |
| World | 3.0 | | 3.1 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 6.2 | | 6.2 |
| Eurozone | 2.8 | | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0 | | 3.5 |
| Japan | 4.5 | | 3.0 |
| China | 13.3 | | 13 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States[1] | 2.8 | | 2.3 |
| Eurozone | 2.5 | | 2.3 |
| United Kingdom | 2.5 | | 2.4 |
| Japan | 2.3 | | 1.7 |
| China | 0.8 | 1.7 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 4.0 | 4.1 | |
| Eurozone | 6.7 | | 6.5 |
| United Kingdom | 4.4 | 4.6 | |
| Japan | 2.4 | | 2.4 |
| China | 5.0 | | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Mar 25F |
|
| United States | 5.25-5.50 | | 4.50-4.75 |
| Eurozone | 4.00 | | 3.00 |
| United Kingdom | 5.25 | | 4.25 |
| Japan | -0.10 | 0.25 | |
| China | 3.45 | | 3.30 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[2] |
Mar 25F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 85.4 | | 84 |
| Gold | 2,162 | 2,400 | |
| Copper (LME) | 8,888 | 9,500 | |
| Carbon | 57 | 80 |
Equities
Stretching valuations
Current[3] |
Mar 2025FForcast |
Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
5,150 | | 5,300 | 4.3% | 8% | -5% | 1.5% |
|
Europe |
506 | | 515 | 5.0% | 5% | -3% | 3.3% |
|
Eurozone |
4,993 | | 5,000 | 3.3% | 4% | -3% | 3.2% |
|
Germany |
17,942 | | 18,700 | 4.2% | 4% | -3% | 3.2% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,743 | | 7,600 | 2.1% | -1% | -1% | 3.9% |
|
Switzerland |
11,721 | | 11,450 | 0.7% | 9% | -11% | 3.0% |
|
Japan |
1,643 | | 1,740 | 8.2% | 11% | -5% | 2.3% |
| 1,049 | | 1,050 | 3.2% | 12% | -12% | 2.9% | |
| 662 | | 675 | 4.8% | 15% | -13% | 2.6% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 03/14/24
Fixed Income
Normalisation of the curve
Current[2] |
Mar 2025F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 4.29% | 4.20% | |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[6] | 231 bp | 225 bp | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] | 86 bp | 85 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[6] | 302 bp | 400 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] | 149 bp | 120 bp | |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.43% | 2.60% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.09% | 4.20% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[8] | 110 bp | 95 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[8] | 338 bp | 400 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[8] | 65 bp | 55 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[8] | 127 bp | 180 bp | |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.78% | 0.90% | |
| Asia credit | 234 bp | 210 bp | |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 355 bp | 390 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
