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The Fed stuck to its inflation-fighting script yesterday, pointing to other tools available for fighting market stress. Markets didn’t really appreciate it – but it does suit our script.
Assessing progress towards reaching 2030 targets is essential for Europe’s future success. It also highlights the need for more investments and further policy action.
Europe is embracing digitalization and renewable energy – This will require substantial investments
“Big was beautiful” in the U.S. – European stocks chased U.S. big caps for the longest time
Europe's retail sector was shaken up by Covid but we see good grounds to believe it is stabilizing, helping European economies in 2H23 along with a growing service sector.
Emerged as relative winners in the fixed-income segment – and we believe they can still deliver
Europe’s bank sector has proven resilient since the Credit Suisse rescue but AT1 bonds have still not fully recovered – making them all the more attractive, in our view.
Younger investors might have been caught off guard by the recent outperformance of European stocks versus their U.S. peers. We think it may well continue.
Recent shocks show that the Euro area is a very heterogenous collection of still largely national economies. Progress is underway, but inflation has not been defeated yet.
The extraordinary savings of the Covid period are depleted now, except among the wealthy – who aren’t quick to spend. So, the economy gets no savings boost this year.
Europe’s banks and U.S. real estate – an unhealthy relationship once again questioned by markets.
For two years Europe's small caps have been lagging blue chips, despite good earnings and very low valuations. This might change in 2024.
More secure supply brings gas prices back down
Compared to bonds, U.S. equities are as overvalued as they were in 2003 and 2009. Back then, both asset classes were cheap. Hard to argue that this is the case again today.
Remain relatively cheap, investors stay cautious – wrongly so, as we believe
