How far ahead of the Fed will the ECB be?

Lower inflation gives Europe’s monetary authorities room to cut

How and why “money” matters again

Monetary aggregates can help increase accuracy in inflation forecasts. It is nice to see such ideas finally catching on again, but don’t get carried away either.

High long-term significance of European elections

Election outcome expected to reflect broader trends and changes

Goodbye inflation, hello unemployment

With its decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, the Fed gives the labor market priority over inflation

Global real estate – how to find value

As prices adjust, many areas of the global real estate market are looking increasingly attractive

Global infrastructure assets – a more nuanced outlook

In a challenging operating environment, selection and thorough bottom-up research remain crucial

German public investments too low

Debt brake is increasingly being called into question

Generative AI – a new iPhone moment in tech?

After a short break, the IT sector is on the rise again in 2023, not least thanks to Generative AI

From valuation risk to earnings risk

The danger of recession is more evident now in market valuations but not in earnings forecasts

From survival to revival

To be politically sustainable, transparency, inclusivity, and fairness must underpin further reforms in Greece, restoring confidence not just among foreign investors.

French recipes for a change

In markets as in politics, perceptions often matter more than electoral realities. That helps explain why markets got spooked by snap elections in France.

French elections - a noisy non-event

No clear winner. The worst might have been averted from a (European) perspective, while from a French perspective some uncertainty will persist until a government emerges.

Frank Kelly’s U.S. Election Update | July 21, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Initial thoughts on President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race for re-election and his subsequent endorsement of Vice President Harris for the presidency.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | September 29, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah is dead leaving markets and world leaders asking, “What happens now?” The U.S. vice presidential candidates to debate as U.S. dockworkers prepare to strike, and Mexico inaugurates a new president.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | September 1, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Summer is over and a hectic autumn begins: U.S. elections heat up, China ramps up relations with Africa, Germany’s historic elections, and U.S. to release jobs figures.