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All forecasts at a glance
Investors began the year in quite a relaxed mood and there are some good reasons for that. But it would be premature to be too confident about the prospects for the year as a whole.
In 2023, occasionally looking at an issue through pre-2010 paradigms might be quite helpful. Yields on German government bonds are a case in point.
When and how far U.S. interest rates should fall is quite a judgement call. Simple monetary-policy rules provide quite a wide range of plausible estimates.
By: Paul Kelly
Global Head of Alternatives | Paul Kelly
For a year now, equity markets have been running ahead of the money supply. You can look at it one way or another, but stocks have one less stimulus to benefit from.
Increasing consumption in modern consumer society poses an ever-growing global challenge.
The start of the war a year ago caused markets to plummet, as did expectations. Recently, these were mostly exceeded in Europe. How long can the markets thrive on this?
Charging points for electric vehicles are emerging as an increasingly interesting segment infrastructure investors should keep an eye on.
Geopolitical risk adds yet another layer of complexity to understanding commodity prices. In terms of forecast accuracy, though, it’s all about the vol.
For a change, Europe’s banking sector appears in reasonably good shape. That’s good news, not least as supranational decision-making remains fragmented.
