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Short-term we see only a small chance of a sustainable countermove
We draw some broad lessons from Spain’s inconclusive elections on how to think about politics in Southern Europe since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Recent strong wage growth among lowly paid, young job switchers may reflect them moving into potentially more productive jobs. Such gains need not be inflationary.
Market participants appear to feel far more certain than the ECB itself that they already know what interest rates will be appropriate. We try to explain why.
Last year was unusual in market participants proving quite prescient in predicting U.S. interest rates. Paradoxically, that probably makes a repeat in 2023 less likely.
According to futures markets, investors expect Fed rate cuts starting in September. We think this prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Even after the Fed's first rate cut, the momentum of cash inflows remains high
By: Björn Jesch
Strong performance of the "Magnificent Seven" has pushed value stocks into the background - wrongly so?
Nasdaq adjusting the weights of its index because the Big 7 have become too big. This is not only bad for investors, but also the free market.
Immediate concerns alleviated, new concerns arise
By: Christian Scherrmann
Why the Fed will cut rates – sooner or maybe later.
Next stop lower rates? Not so fast, hopefully!
Slowing down the U.S. Economy
Labor market tightness and its implications for monetary policy
Time has come to engineer that soft landing.
