- The leader of Iran
- What to watch for
The Iranian government has confirmed that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Ambirabdollahian have been killed in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran. We have received several questions regarding the implications of their deaths for Iran, the broader Middle East, and oil prices.
The leader of Iran
First, it is important to know the President of Iran is not actually the leader of Iran – that role sits squarely with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The President – along with the Foreign Minister – only execute on policy decisions of the Ayatollah. Raisi – who was elected President in 2021 – was seen as a hardliner who was squarely aligned with the Ayatollah’s vision for a strict religious government. Raisi was also a ruthless instrument in carrying out the Ayatollah’s agenda and directions. Infamously known as the “Butcher of Tehran” for overseeing a bloody crackdown on protesters in 2022-2023 who were incensed by the death of a young woman at the hands of religious police for not wearing a head scarf. Hundreds, if not thousands, of Iranian citizens were beaten, arrested, or killed in those crackdowns.
While we see little or no policy shifts in Iran’s external and internal policies with Raisi’s death or internal political disruption in Tehran, it does raise questions of who will replace the 85-year-old Ayatollah when he dies. Ayatollah Khamenei was elected Supreme Leader more than 30 years ago following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Iranian Revolution in the 1970’s that deposed the Shah of Iran. Raisi was seen the most likely replacement and now there is no clear or obvious choice.
What to watch for
Under the Iranian Constitution, the First Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber, has been named the Acting President and an election has been ordered 50 days from now. But it is doubtful he will end up the chosen candidate to replace Raisi. The most likely candidate is the Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old current chaplain of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Our view is Tehran, and the existing Iranian political and military hierarchy, will be much more focused on ensuring a smooth election and consolidation of power internally (although, if it is anything like Raisi’s election in 2021, there will be record low voter turnout). They will also likely use the occasion to further repress moderates in Iran (who have become essentially political exiles with no power).
It also suggests Iranian leadership will be at the very least distracted from the War in Gaza and taking any other military action against Israel in the near future.
All this suggests to us the Iranian power structure post-election is likely to get even more hard-core and authoritarian – which means we could see increased domestic resistance and unhappiness. Iran’s economy is, in a word, a mess. During Raisi’s tenure as president, the Iranian rial suffered a sharp decline, hitting a low of 705,000 riyals per dollar, while inflation rates remained high, reaching 41.5% in 2023. Unemployment hovered around 9%, and economic growth slowed, with the IMF estimating a drop from 4.7% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024.
