Frank Kelly’s U.S. Election Update | July 21, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Initial thoughts on President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race for re-election and his subsequent endorsement of Vice President Harris for the presidency.

The last emissions cuts better be the deepest

Based on current trajectories, Europe’s 2030 greenhouse-gas-emission ambitions are in jeopardy. To meet its targets, Europe needs to dial up decarbonization efforts.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 15, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Washington was preparing for the festivities and news of the Republican National Convention this coming week and instead is shocked and numbed by the attempted assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.

Yen to dollar at its weakest level since 1986

Short-term we see only a small chance of a sustainable countermove

Is Mr. Market Apolitical? Not quite

By: Maria Milina, Robert Bush, Jason Chen, Johannes Müller

French elections - a noisy non-event

No clear winner. The worst might have been averted from a (European) perspective, while from a French perspective some uncertainty will persist until a government emerges.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 7, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Four major geopolitical events unfold this coming week, which we believe will be of significant focus and interest to global markets.

After the June cut: what’s ahead for ECB rates

The ECB cut its policy rates in June, as expected. But that does not mean that the Frankfurt- based central bank will cut again in July.

APAC CIO View

By: Ivy-sw Ng, Tommy Law

China’s Journey to Expand EV Exports

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

U.S. Elections 2024 & Fiscal Repair: Taxes, tariffs or a third choice?

Two years of yield curve inversion in the U.S.

Recession looks likely to be avoided this time

French recipes for a change

In markets as in politics, perceptions often matter more than electoral realities. That helps explain why markets got spooked by snap elections in France.

Our forecasts

All forecasts at a glance

Still looking pretty good

By: Björn Jesch

The investment environment is not free of challenges. It never is. At the moment, there is a lot going for investors in our core scenario. The prerequisite, however, is that the AI investment boom doesn’t falter.

APAC CIO View

By: Ivy-sw Ng

The Chinese Property Market in Flux