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By: Jason Chen, Francesco Curto, Dirk Schlüter
In this edition of the Long View, we examine the risks around monetary policy tightening measures.
The Fed stuck to its inflation-fighting script yesterday, pointing to other tools available for fighting market stress. Markets didn’t really appreciate it – but it does suit our script.
Immediate concerns alleviated, new concerns arise
Far fewer companies use ‘shadow’ internal water prices than carbon prices to guide business decisions.
Tensions that may ultimately help bring down inflation
Will Silicon Valley Bank’s insolvency spill over into broader markets?
All forecasts at a glance
Inflation looks set to remain quite sticky, with more interest rate hikes to come. This makes for a rather challenging environment for many risky assets.
By: Michael Lewis, Maria Milina, Richard Marshall
Policies to electrify European roads
The Chinese economy is on track for stronger growth in 2023
By: Christian Scherrmann
Labor market tightness and its implications for monetary policy
Never since the 1940s have so many U.S. job openings coincided with so few job seekers. This help explain why the Fed is likely to continue its hawkishly cautious stance.
Monetary aggregates can help increase accuracy in inflation forecasts. It is nice to see such ideas finally catching on again, but don’t get carried away either.
The start of the war a year ago caused markets to plummet, as did expectations. Recently, these were mostly exceeded in Europe. How long can the markets thrive on this?
Market participants appear to feel far more certain than the ECB itself that they already know what interest rates will be appropriate. We try to explain why.