28-Feb-24 Equities
John Vojticek

John Vojticek

Head of Liquid Real Assets, DWS
Geoffrey Shaver, CFA

Geoffrey Shaver, CFA

Portfolio Management Specialist – Liquid Real Assets
Edward O'Donnell

Edward O'Donnell

Senior Product Specialist, Liquid Real Assets

Real assets mixed as broader markets rise

Weekly Edition

Market index returns



Week to date since February 21, 2024 as of February 28, 2024

Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Market commentary:

Global equities rose this week, kickstarted by a strong earnings report from Nvidia last week, but were otherwise largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of new inflation data. Upon release of the inflation print (just after our review period), markets responded positively. Investor expectations of when central banks will begin to ease continue to fluctuate. Interestingly, although the number of expected cuts in the U.S. this year has been halved, equity market volatility has declined, the U.S. dollar has held steady, and gold and crude oil prices saw minor gains. Importantly, notwithstanding the media focus on AI, we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that we have seen a broadening of sectors participating in the recent rally. For the month of February, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index gained 5.6%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100, which climbed 5.4%. Against this backdrop, all Real Assets classes underperformed the broader equity markets for the week. TIPS and Commodities, helped by the energy segment, saw mild gains while Natural Resource Equities were flat over our review period. Global Infrastructure and Global Real Estate securities fell marginally, with weakness seen in utilities and self storage REITs.
 
Why it matters:  In a week mostly devoid of bad news, investor complacency reigned supreme. Fears of inflation reigniting fell flat, while the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip are being overlooked, AI euphoria continues to drive the market, and the U.S. Congress looks set to avoid a shutdown. That final point is actually more nuanced, as the deal struck involves funding some agencies for the full fiscal year, while funding for others will expire on March 8 or March 22, meaning there are still more rounds of negotiations to occur. The question outstanding is whether global economic growth outside the U.S. can rebound, as the UK, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, and likely Germany are already in recession yet, recent PMI data has improved sequentially, providing some evidence of green shoots in Europe. A soft- or no-landing scenario in the U.S. still seems plausible, but the risk of a recession remains. As we approach the presidential election in November, the market will increasingly focus on potential fiscal and geopolitical outcomes depending on the frontrunner and their ramifications for risk markets.

Macro Dive: This week saw new inflation data out of the U.S., UK, and eurozone, which we review below. We also take a look at U.S. GDP numbers and fresh ISM manufacturing data.
  • No surprise is a pleasant surprise: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January was released, and while investors were expecting the worst following hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints earlier this month, results were in line with consensus across the board. Headline PCE came in at 0.3% month-on-month (above December’s 0.2%) and 2.4% year-on-year (lower than December’s 2.6%). Core PCE (which excludes food & energy), the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred inflation gauge, was 0.4% month-on-month (above December’s 0.2%) and 2.8% year-on-year (lower than December’s 2.9%). Following the release, equity markets reacted favorably, and longer-term bond yields retreated. While the Fed insists they remain data dependent on any future policy changes (and have already ruled out a March cut), this was the last look at PCE ahead of the March meeting, though February’s CPI and PPI will be available. While investors’ expectations (as measured by Fed Funds futures) on the timing of the first rate cut were slightly increased for May and June following the PCE release, we remind readers that the total number of expected cuts in 2024 has been reduced from six at the start of the year to now just three.
  • Lagarde-dly optimistic:  After an unexpected pickup in December, UK CPI for January came in lower-than-expected across the board at -0.6% month-on-month (well below December’s 0.4%), 4.0% year-on-year at (same as December), and core CPI at 5.1% (same as December). The most positive aspect was that food inflation was negative on a monthly basis for the first time since September 2021. In the eurozone, CPI for February was up 0.6% month-on-month (inline but well above January’s -0.4%), while up 2.6% on a year-on-year basis (above an expected 2.5% but below January’s 2.8%). Year-on-year core CPI was higher than anticipated at 3.1% but did slow sequentially from 3.3%. In individual countries, early estimates of inflation in Germany showed inflation at 0.4% month-on-month (up from 0.2% in January) and 2.5% year-on-year (down from 2.9%), with both new prints lower than expected. In France, inflation was a bit higher than expected at 2.9% year-on-year, and Spain saw year-on-year CPI grow at 2.8%, in line with expectations; both France and Spain decelerated from January. Similar to the Fed, the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are in a wait and observe mode before determining when to ease benchmark policy rates, though per overnight index swaps, the most likely candidates are June or July for the ECB and August in the case of the BOE.
  • Slow your roll: The second print of U.S. GDP for 4Q 23 was released this week at 3.2%, down 10 bps from the initial estimate and slowing from 4.9% in the third quarter of last year. U.S. economic growth is expected to slow further this year, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP. Now forecast for the first quarter tweaked down a hair to below 3.0%, which would still represent healthy economic conditions. The question is what happens in subsequent quarters. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) latest forecast has U.S. GDP growing by only 2.1% for the full year and slowing further to 1.7% in 2025, indicating material slowing later this year. The Fed’s own projection for 2024 (published in December) was even lower at just 1.4%, but we expect this could be revised higher at their March meeting. Still, the U.S. growth story faced a setback this week, as the Manufacturing ISM released Friday was reported at 47.8 (below 49.5 est), providing the 16th consecutive month of manufacturing sector contraction. Other data points in the ISM report also demonstrated weakness, as New Orders at 49.2 and Production at 48.4 fell from expansion status last month, and Employment at 45.9 (below 48.5 est) is contracting at a faster pace than previous months.
Real Assets, Real Insights: This week, we will review and compare apartment operating fundamentals in the U.S. and Canada, preview upcoming changes to the EU’s border management and visa systems, and conclude with a peek at some of the industrial and precious metals that escaped new sanctions on Russia.
 
  • Is the grass greener or is the snow whiter (Real Estate):  With multifamily apartment REITs’ earnings in the rearview mirror, we wanted to highlight some differences we’re seeing between the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., same-property net operating income is likely to be hampered this year (< 1% growth overall based on company guidance) due to softening demand and elevated levels of new units being delivered. While these effects will be felt across the country, they’re even more notable in the Sunbelt region, where cities like Austin and Nashville have outsized new supply and could be hit hardest. In contrast, Canadian apartment companies are expecting same-property net operating income to grow in the range of high single digits to low double digits (think 8 to 12%). Canada is benefiting from incredibly high demand and low supply of new apartments, despite low turnover and rent control in some areas. We would note that the province of Alberta, which largely lacks rent control and has few units being delivered this year, could see some of the highest rent growth in the Great White North.
  • European travel plans? Expect more processing time (Infrastructure):  The EU is preparing to launch the Entry Exit System (EES) and European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS). The EES is scheduled to go into effect this October (though has been subject to delays) and is a personal data collection system (fingerprints and facial images) for non-EU citizens entering the EU area and will replace manual passport stamping, while the ETIAS serves as a visa waiver for non-EU citizens and is expected to come online in 2025. Notwithstanding that the systems are designed to enhance security, they could increase processing times. One estimate, which could impact the tunnel concession owner, shows processing times for the Eurotunnel increasing to 6 minutes per car from the current ~60 seconds.
  • Which metal has the mettle (Commodities): As the U.S. prepared new sanctions on Russian targets following the suspicious death of opposition politician Aleksey Navalny, several metals caught a bid in anticipation of being in the crosshairs of new measures. Nickel, Aluminum, Palladium, and Platinum all rose in advance of the U.S.’s official announcement, given the large amounts of these metals either mined, refined, or produced in Russia. However, given that metals escaped the new sanctions on over 500 people and entities, only Nickel held its price gains for the week, while Aluminum, Palladium, and Platinum all priced lower. In fact, Nickel gained almost 4% for the week (second only to Cotton in the commodities we track) and is the top-performing metal commodity so far in 2024. We see additional room for Nickel to climb given the series of mine supply curtailments announced over the past few weeks, though we are reminded of scandals the past few years, such as fake Nickel shipments that were nothing more than sand or steel. We’re also favorable toward Aluminum, which has been pressured by lingering uncertainty about global demand but should see a price recovery this year. On the other hand, Palladium and Platinum will need a rebound in automobile manufacturing (with combustion engines), a weaker U.S. dollar, faster Fed cuts, or more supply disruptions before a price recovery can be actuated.

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