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Macro
 Still waiting for U.S. slowdown
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 2.4 | ‌ | 1.7 |
| Eurozone | 0.7 | ‌ | 1.0 |
| United Kingdom | 1.0 | ‌ | 1.2 |
| Japan | 0.0 | ‌ | 1.2 |
| China | 4.8 | Â | 4.4 |
| World | 3.1 | ‌ | 3.2 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 6.0 | ‌ | 5.9 |
| Eurozone | 2.8 | ‌ | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0 | ‌ | 3.7 |
| Japan | 4.5 | ‌ | 3.0 |
| China | 13.3 | ‌ | 13 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States[1] | 2.9 | ‌ | 2.3 |
| Eurozone | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.3 |
| United Kingdom | 2.6 | ‌ | 2.4 |
| Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.0 |
| China | 0.5 | Â | 1.7 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 4.3 | ‌ | 4.1 |
| Eurozone | 6.6 | ‌ | 6.6 |
| United Kingdom | 4.4 | Â | 4.5 |
| Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.4 |
| China | 5.0 | ‌ | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
September 25F |
|
| United States | 5.25-5.50 | ‌ | 3.50-3.75 |
| Eurozone | 3.75 | ‌ | 2.25 |
| United Kingdom | 5.00 | ‌ | 3.75 |
| Japan | 0.25 | Â | 0.75 |
| China | 3.35 | ‌ | 3.10 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[2] |
September 25F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 73.0 | Â | 80 |
| Gold | 2,484 | Â | 2,810 |
| Copper (LME) | 9,000 | Â | 10,000 |
| Carbon | 67 | Â | 80 |
Equities
No recession no correction?
Current[3] |
September 2025FForecast |
Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
5,503 | ‌ | 5,800 | 6.1% | 10.7% | -6.0% | 1.5% |
|
Europe |
512 | ‌ | 540 | 8.6% | 4.9% | 0.2% | 3.5% |
|
Eurozone |
4,815 | ‌ | 5,100 | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 3.5% |
|
Germany |
18,577 | ‌ | 20,000 | 7.3% | 7.8% | -3.7% | 3.2% |
|
United Kingdom |
8,242 | ‌ | 8,350 | 4.8% | 2.4% | -1.5% | 3.8% |
|
Switzerland |
12,031 | ‌ | 12,350 | 5.3% | 9.7% | -7.5% | 3.1% |
|
Japan |
1,608 | ‌ | 1,760 | 11.8% | 8.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| 1,076 | ‌ | 1,140 | 8.8% | 13.0% | -7.1% | 2.9% | |
| 687 | ‌ | 740 | 10.2% | 12.7% | -5.2% | 2.7% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 09/05/24
Fixed Income
6 cuts in next 12 months
Current[2] |
September 2025F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 3.73% | Â | 4.05% |
| U.S. municipal bonds[6] | Â 71 bp | Â | 75 bp |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] | 92 bp | Â | 85 bp |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[6] | 315 bp | Â | 375 bp |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6] | 132 bp |  | 120 bp |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.21% | Â | 2.25% |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 3.92% | Â | 4.00% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[7] | 115 bp | Â | 95 bp |
| Euro high-yield corporates[7] | 365 bp | Â | 400 bp |
| Securitized: covered bonds[7] | 62 bp | Â | 50 bp |
| Italy (10-year)[7] | 143 bp | Â | 180 bp |
Asia- Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year)Â Â | 0.88% | Â | 1.40% |
| Asia credit | 224 bp | Â | 125 bp |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 388 bp | Â | 390 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: Â positive return potential for long-only investors. Â limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. Â negative return potential for long-only investors.
