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The vaccines were the breakthrough. Now a year beckons in which central banks are likely to keep interest rates low even as economies recover.
The stock-market rollercoaster could continue in November, depending on the evolution of Covid-19 and precisely what emerges from the hard-fought U.S. election.
Fiscal stimulus is likely to be more limited than under a Democratic landslide
By: Darwei Kung
Gold remains an attractive diversifier
By: Johannes Müller
Looking good for Democrats – don't count out the underdogs, though
We believe that the wait-and-see, nervous attitude of the markets in September could continue in October. Central-bank support remains important.
Oil will likely grind higher
By: Johannes Müller, Peter Doralt
The upcoming U.S. elections could be remembered as the most important since 1980.
Many markets reached new highs in August, stretching valuations even further. Combined with recent political developments this is pointing toward a stormy autumn.
Gold is keeping us excited
In global stock markets, July was a pretty quiet month. Covid-19 and its direct and indirect effects look set to remain a crucial theme in the weeks ahead.
No recovery yet
Smart networks of mechanical and digital machines have the potential to mitigate future pandemic risks. There are plenty of stumbling blocks, however.
June ends one of the strongest capital-market quarters in decades. But the recovery euphoria is likely to lose momentum now.
Optimism overdone
