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Macro
Further normalization
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 2.0 | ‌ | 1.6 |
| Eurozone | 0.7 | ‌ | 1.1 |
| United Kingdom | 0.7 | ‌ | 1.3 |
| Japan | 0.3 | ‌ | 1.4 |
| China | 5.0 | Â | 4.4 |
| World | 3.1 | ‌ | 3.2 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 6.0 | ‌ | 5.9 |
| Eurozone | 2.8 | ‌ | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0 | ‌ | 3.5 |
| Japan | 5.0 | ‌ | 3.0 |
| China | 13.3 | ‌ | 13 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States[1] | 3.0 | ‌ | 2.3 |
| Eurozone | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.3 |
| United Kingdom | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.3 |
| Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.0 |
| China | 0.6 | Â | 1.7 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 4.0 | Â | 4.1 |
| Eurozone | 6.7 | ‌ | 6.5 |
| United Kingdom | 4.4 | Â | 4.6 |
| Japan | 2.4 | ‌ | 2.3 |
| China | 5.0 | ‌ | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
June 25F |
|
| United States | 5.25-5.50 | ‌ | 4.50-4.75 |
| Eurozone | 3.75 | ‌ | 3.00 |
| United Kingdom | 5.25 | ‌ | 4.25 |
| Japan | 0.10 | Â | 0.50 |
| China | 3.45 | ‌ | 3.10 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[2] |
June 25F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 83.0 | ‌ | 80 |
| Gold | 2,312 | Â | 2,600 |
| Copper (LME) | 10,400 | ‌ | 10,100 |
| Carbon | 70 | Â | 80 |
Equities
Diversifying from US-AI boom
Current[3] |
June 2025FForcast |
Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
5,434 | ‌ | 5,600 | 4.5% | 11% | -8% | 1.5% |
|
Europe |
516 | ‌ | 530 | 6.4% | 5% | -2% | 3.3% |
|
Eurozone |
4,936 | ‌ | 5,100 | 7.8% | 4% | 0% | 3.3% |
|
Germany |
18,266 | ‌ | 19,600 | 8.0% | 8% | -3% | 3.3% |
|
United Kingdom |
8,164 | ‌ | 8,200 | 4.4% | 1% | 0% | 3.8% |
|
Switzerland |
12,096 | ‌ | 11,900 | 1.6% | 10% | -11% | 3.0% |
|
Japan |
1,692 | ‌ | 1,760 | 6.0% | 10% | -6% | 2.3% |
| 1,076 | ‌ | 1,100 | 5.1% | 13% | -11% | 2.9% | |
| 694 | ‌ | 710 | 5.0% | 15% | -12% | 2.6% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 06/13/24
Fixed Income
3 cuts in 12 months
Current[2] |
June 2025F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 4.24% | Â | 4.25% |
| U.S. municipal bonds[6] | Â 67 bp | Â | 75 bp |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] | 85 bp | Â | 80 bp |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[6] | 312 bp | Â | 400 bp |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6] | 145 bp |  | 120 bp |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.47% | Â | 2.60% |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.12% | Â | 4.20% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[7] | 111 bp | Â | 95 bp |
| Euro high-yield corporates[7] | 342 bp | Â | 400 bp |
| Securitized: covered bonds[7] | 62 bp | Â | 50 bp |
| Italy (10-year)[7] | 147 bp | Â | 180 bp |
Asia- Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year)Â Â | 0.98% | Â | 1.40% |
| Asia credit | 222 bp | Â | 200 bp |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 391 bp | Â | 390 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: Â positive return potential for long-only investors. Â limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. Â negative return potential for long-only investors.
