Investment Traffic Lights | Quarterly Edition

Markets have come well through summer as companies made decent profits and interest yields remained ultra-low. The conditions are good for equities.

Investment Traffic Lights | Quarterly Edition

Omicron and inflation have hit markets. But they probably won’t change the economic outlook much. We con-tinue to believe a good year for the markets lies ahead.

Investment Traffic Lights | Quarterly Edition

On a 12-month horizon, we are positive on most risk asset classes, even though we expect inflation to keep the markets busy this year.

Investment Traffic Lights | Quarterly Edition

By: Björn Jesch

Our monthly market analysis and positioning

Investment Traffic Lights

June was dominated by surprisingly dovish central banks, which lifted some equity markets to new highs and pushed some bond yields to new lows. But the joy is not untroubled.

Investment Traffic Lights

In August, the bond market was bursting with records. The low-interest environment is likely to stay with us for some time. The joy of equity investors is not unspoiled, fears of recession are spreading.

Investment Traffic Lights

After a few tumultuous months, September proved relatively calm. Time to tweak some of our strategies.

Investment Traffic Lights

October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how untroubled markets can be when central banks keep serving them monetary cocktails.

Investment Traffic Lights

The year-end rally has already started. Everybody seems to be on board, and central banks continue to be happy to help.

Investment Traffic Lights

There were clear factors behind the year-end rally which in 2019 brought one of the best returns since 1990. However, the risk of short-term setbacks has therefore become greater.

Investment Traffic Lights

After a turbulent start to the year, investors may be asking themselves whether to buy into the weakness or hedge their positions further? Or do both?

Investment Traffic Lights

In February stocks and bonds dived from their record heights. The global spread of the coronavirus seems to be dictating the responses of central banks, economies and markets.

Investment Traffic Lights

In March the longest U.S. bull market finally ended. And was almost forgotten as the coronavirus pandemic, trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus, and curfews took over.

Investment Traffic Lights

In April, some stock indices posted record jumps and the risk premiums of corporate bonds narrowed considerably. This could now be followed by consolidation.

Investment Traffic Lights

Government rescue packages and a gradual end to the lockdown spurred the markets on in May at a pace that probably cannot be continued.