CIO Commodity Commentary

By: Darwei Kung

Finally a phase-one deal – and now?

U.S.-China trade deal: the easy step is done. And now?

By: Elke Speidel-Walz

U.S.-Chinese "phase-one deal": Ceasefire in the trade war, but nothing more. Tariffs remain much higher than they were. What's next?

Investment Traffic Lights

There were clear factors behind the year-end rally which in 2019 brought one of the best returns since 1990. However, the risk of short-term setbacks has therefore become greater.

Investment Traffic Lights

The year-end rally has already started. Everybody seems to be on board, and central banks continue to be happy to help.

CIO Commodity Commentary

By: Darwei Kung

A united OPEC and trade headlines

European fiscal stimulus? Don't get your hopes up!

By: Martin Moryson

While German fiscal policy is fairly expansionary by its own standards, requests for more fiscal stimulus are mounting. Without a serious recession in sight we don't expect much more.

Investment Traffic Lights

October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how untroubled markets can be when central banks keep serving them monetary cocktails.

CIO Commodity Commentary

By: Darwei Kung

Volatile times ahead

Lessons from the U.S. repo-market turmoil

By: Johannes Müller

The abrupt repo-rate increase shouldn't have come as a surprise to the Fed. While short-term factors played a role, long-term bugs need to be addressed.

Investment Traffic Lights

After a few tumultuous months, September proved relatively calm. Time to tweak some of our strategies.

CIO Commodity Commentary

By: Darwei Kung

Our monthly analysis and outlook on commodities

Japan: tax hike unlikely to harm economy

By: Johannes Müller

After a long struggle, Japan is raising its consumption tax on October 1. Although this will weigh on the economy, we do not believe that it should cause a drastic slump as in 2014.

Investment Traffic Lights

In August, the bond market was bursting with records. The low-interest environment is likely to stay with us for some time. The joy of equity investors is not unspoiled, fears of recession are spreading.

Investment Traffic Lights

June was dominated by surprisingly dovish central banks, which lifted some equity markets to new highs and pushed some bond yields to new lows. But the joy is not untroubled.