Nov 22, 2023 Forecasts

Our forecasts

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Macro

A year of two halves

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2023F

2024F

United States 2.3 ‌ 0.8
Eurozone 0.7 ‌ 0.7
United Kingdom 0.5 ‌ 0.6
Japan 2.1 ‌ 1.0
China 5.2   4.7
World 3.0 ‌ 2.8

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2023F

2024F

United States 6.0 ‌ 6.0
Eurozone 2.9 ‌ 2.7
United Kingdom 5.2 ‌ 4.5
Japan 6.0 ‌ 4.5
China 7.4 ‌ 7.2

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2023F

2024F

United States[1] 4.2 ‌ 2.8
Eurozone 5.7 ‌ 2.9
United Kingdom 7.3 ‌ 2.6
Japan 3.2 ‌ 1.9
China 0.5   1.8

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2023F

2024F

United States 3.9   4.3
Eurozone 6.5 ‌ 6.5
United Kingdom 4.0   4.5
Japan 2.6 ‌ 2.4
China 5.0 ‌ 5.0

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current[2]

Dec 24F

United States 5.25-5.50 ‌ 4.50-4.75
Eurozone 4.00 ‌ 3.25
United Kingdom 5.25 ‌ 4.75
Japan -0.10   0.25
China 3.45 ‌ 3.15

Commodities (in dollars)

Current[3]

Dec 24F

Crude oil (Brent) 83.0   88
Gold 1,946   2,250
Copper (LME) 7,985   9,050

Equities

Looking through the tunnel

Current[4]

Dec 2024F

Total Return (exp.)[5]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

4,503 ‌ 4,700 5.2% 10% -7% 1.7%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

455 ‌ 465 5.7% 4% -2% 3.6%

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

4,316 ‌ 4,400 4.1% 4% -4% 3.7%

Germany
(DAX)[6]

15,748 ‌ 16,600 4.4% 4% -4% 3.6%

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

7,487 ‌ 7,400 3.4% 4% -5% 4.5%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

10,708 ‌ 10,700 4.8% 7% -5% 3.2%

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

1,458 ‌ 1,520 6.5% 6% -2% 2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(USD)

984 ‌ 1,010 6.3% 11% -8% 2.9%

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index
(USD)

621 ‌ 640 6.6% 13% -9% 2.6%

F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/15/23

Fixed Income

 A good year for bonds ahead

Current[2]

Dec 2024F

United States
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 4.53%   4.20%
U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7]  231 bp   225 bp
U.S. investment-grade corporates[7] 110 bp   105 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates[7] 381 bp   450 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] 156 bp   120 bp 
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) 2.64%   2.70%
UK Gilts (10-year) 4.23%   4.20%
Euro investment-grade corporates[9] 146 bp   110 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[9] 456 bp   450 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[9] 78 bp   70 bp
Italy (10-year)[9] 179 bp   220 bp
Asia-Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year) 0.80%   1.15%
Asia credit 269 bp   280 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 428 bp   440 bp
Emerging-market credit 329 bp   325 bp

Currencies

Current[2]

Dec 2024F

EUR vs. USD 1.08   1.10
USD vs. JPY 151   146
EUR vs. GBP 0.87   0.87
GBP vs. USD 1.24   1.27
USD vs. CNY 7.25   7.35


F refers to our forecasts as of 11/15/23
WTI = West Texas Intermediate
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend   or a downward trend  .
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  positive return potential for long-only investors.  limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  negative return potential for long-only investors.

Debtor’s prism

Some U.S. households are clearly getting squeezed by higher interest rates. How much of a macroeconomic impact this will have is surprisingly tricky, however.
Read more

More topics

Discover more

1. core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

2. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 11/15/23

3. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 11/15/23

4. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 11/15/23

5. Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable

6. Total-return index (includes dividends)

7. Spread over U.S. Treasuries

8. Bloomberg Barclays MBS Forward Index

9. Spread over German Bunds

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