- Home »
- Insights »
- CIO View »
- CIO View Quarterly »
- Our forecasts
Macro
Mild recession ahead
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2022F |
2023F |
|
| United States | 1.8 | | 0.4 |
| Eurozone | 3.2 | | 0.3 |
| United Kingdom | 4.3 | | -0.6 |
| Japan | 1.6 | | 1.2 |
| China | 3.3 | 5.0 | |
| World | 3.2 | | 2.8 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2022F |
2023F |
|
| United States | 4.4 | | 3.9 |
| Eurozone | 3.7 | | 3.4 |
| United Kingdom | 6.8 | | 5.5 |
| Japan | 8.5 | | 4.0 |
| China | 8.9 | | 7.2 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2022F |
2023F |
|
| United States[1] | 8.2 | | 4.1 |
| Eurozone | 8.4 | | 6.0 |
| United Kingdom | 9.0 | | 7.8 |
| Japan | 2.3 | | 1.6 |
| China | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2022F |
2023F |
|
| United States | 3.6 | 4.4 | |
| Eurozone | 7.0 | | 6.8 |
| United Kingdom | 3.8 | 4.2 | |
| Japan | 2.6 | | 2.5 |
| China | 5.2 | | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Dec 2023F |
|
| United States | 3.75-4.00 | 5.00-5.25 | |
| Eurozone | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| United Kingdom | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Japan | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| China | 3.65 | 3.65 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[3] |
Dec 2023F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 89.8 | 100 | |
| Gold | 1,760 | 1,850 | |
| Copper (LME) | 8,110 | 8,500 |
Equities
There are alternatives
Current[4] |
Dec 2023F |
Total Return (exp.)[5] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
3,947 | | 4,100 | 5.5% | 1% | 3% | 1.7% |
|
Europe |
428 | | 445 | 6.4% | -1% | 4% | 3.6% |
|
Eurozone |
3,878 | | 4,000 | 5.9% | -2% | 4% | 3.9% |
|
Germany |
14,266 | | 15,000 | 4.1% | 0% | 1% | 3.5% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,347 | | 7,650 | 8.0% | -6% | 9% | 4.7% |
|
Switzerland |
10,918 | | 11,150 | 4.4% | 10% | -9% | 3.2% |
|
Japan |
1,205 | | 1,250 | 6.4% | 2% | 2% | 2.6% |
| 942 | | 990 | 8.2% | 0% | 5% | 3.1% | |
| 603 | | 625 | 6.4% | 2% | 2% | 2.7% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/17/22
Fixed Income
Income is back
Current[2] |
Dec 2023F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 3.77% | 4.20% | |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7] | 231 bp | 245 bp | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates | 128 bp | 130 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates | 459 bp | 500 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] | 45 bp | 40 bp | |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.02% | 2.40% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 3.20% | 3.30% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[9] | 188 bp | 150 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[9] | 532bp | 550 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[9] | 85 bp | 90 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[9] | 191 bp | 240 bp | |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.25% | 0.20% | |
| Asia credit | 374 bp | 380 bp | |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 490 bp | 500 bp | |
| Emerging-market credit | 422 bp | 425 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
