- Home »
- Insights »
- CIO View »
- CIO View Quarterly »
- Our forecasts
Macro
Still waiting for the recession
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 1.0 | ‌ | 0.8 |
| Eurozone | 0.8 | ‌ | 0.9 |
| United Kingdom | 0.2 | ‌ | 1.1 |
| Japan | 1.0 | ‌ | 0.9 |
| China | 6.0 | Â | 5.0 |
| World | 2.8 | ‌ | 3.0 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 4.8 | ‌ | 5.0 |
| Eurozone | 3.7 | ‌ | 3.3 |
| United Kingdom | 5.5 | ‌ | 4.5 |
| Japan | 6.5 | ‌ | 4.5 |
| China | 6.9 | ‌ | 6.4 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States[1] | 4.3 | ‌ | 2.5 |
| Eurozone | 5.7 | ‌ | 2.5 |
| United Kingdom | 6.9 | ‌ | 2.5 |
| Japan | 2.9 | ‌ | 1.9 |
| China | 1.5 | Â | 2.7 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 3.8 | Â | 4.7 |
| Eurozone | 6.7 | ‌ | 6.7 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0 | Â | 4.1 |
| Japan | 2.6 | ‌ | 2.4 |
| China | 5.2 | ‌ | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Jun 2024F |
|
| United States | 5.00-5.25 | ‌ | 4.75-5.0 |
| Eurozone | 3.25 | Â | 4.00 |
| United Kingdom | 4.50 | Â | 5.00 |
| Japan | -0.10 | Â | 0.10 |
| China | 3.65 | Â | 3.65 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[3] |
Jun 2024F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 74.3 | Â | 85 |
| Gold | 1,978 | Â | 2,200 |
| Copper (LME) | 8,244 | Â | 8,700 |
Equities
 OverhAIped?
Current[4] |
Jun 2024F |
Total Return (exp.)[5] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
4,221 | ‌ | 4,200 | 2.2% | 1% | -1% | 1.8% |
|
Europe |
455 | ‌ | 480 | 9.7% | 2% | 5% | 3.4% |
|
Eurozone |
4,258 | ‌ | 4,450 | 8.9% | 0% | 5% | 3.4% |
|
Germany |
15,854 | ‌ | 17,000 | 8.5% | 1% | 4% | 3.3% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,490 | ‌ | 7,700 | 7.5% | -1% | 4% | 4.1% |
|
Switzerland |
11,296 | ‌ | 11,500 | 5.8% | 20% | -18% | 3.3% |
|
Japan |
1,321 | ‌ | 1,400 | 9.6% | 3% | 4% | 2.6% |
| 962 | ‌ | 1,040 | 11.7% | -1% | 9% | 3.2% | |
| 618 | ‌ | 680 | 12.9% | 3% | 7% | 2.7% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 06/01/23
Fixed Income
No turning point for yields yet
Current[2] |
Jun 2024F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 3.60% | Â | 4.20% |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7] | Â 231 bp | Â | 225 bp |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[7] | 128 bp | Â | 110 bp |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[7] | 455 bp | Â | 450 bp |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] | 54 bp |  | 120 bp |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.25% | Â | 2.80% |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.12% | Â | 3.95% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[9] | 168 bp | Â | 110 bp |
| Euro high-yield corporates[9] | 494 bp | Â | 450 bp |
| Securitized: covered bonds[9] | 92 bp | Â | 70 bp |
| Italy (10-year)[9] | 184 bp | Â | 200 bp |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.42% | Â | 0.75% |
| Asia credit | 312 bp | Â | 280 bp |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 481 bp | Â | 470 bp |
| Emerging-market credit | 376bp | Â | 350 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: Â positive return potential for long-only investors. Â limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. Â negative return potential for long-only investors.
