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Short-term we see only a small chance of a sustainable countermove
Recent strong wage growth among lowly paid, young job switchers may reflect them moving into potentially more productive jobs. Such gains need not be inflationary.
Market participants appear to feel far more certain than the ECB itself that they already know what interest rates will be appropriate. We try to explain why.
Last year was unusual in market participants proving quite prescient in predicting U.S. interest rates. Paradoxically, that probably makes a repeat in 2023 less likely.
According to futures markets, investors expect Fed rate cuts starting in September. We think this prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
By: Martin Moryson
By: Björn Jesch
Strong performance of the "Magnificent Seven" has pushed value stocks into the background - wrongly so?
Compared to the overall market, the U.S. bank sector is bobbling around near its record lows. Rightly so, we say, because banks don’t offer much to please shareholders.
The oil and gas sector has been strongly outperforming the alternative energy sector. There are many reasons for that. Higher interest expenditure is one of them.
Immediate concerns alleviated, new concerns arise
By: Elke Speidel-Walz
U.S.-Chinese "phase-one deal": Ceasefire in the trade war, but nothing more. Tariffs remain much higher than they were. What's next?
U.S. money market funds (MMFs) have experienced massive inflows since the end of 2022. At just above USD 6 trillion, they currently stand at an all-time high
By: Johannes Müller, Peter Doralt
The upcoming U.S. elections could be remembered as the most important since 1980.
By: Christian Scherrmann
Time has come to engineer that soft landing.
Why the Fed will cut rates – sooner or maybe later.
