Mar 19, 2024 Forecasts

Our forecasts

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Macro

EUZ-US divergence in 24 and 25

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2024F

2025F

United States 1.8 ‌ 1.6
Eurozone 0.7 ‌ 1.1
United Kingdom 0.4 ‌ 1.3
Japan 0.5 ‌ 1.1
China 4.8   4.4
World 3.0 ‌ 3.1

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2024F

2025F

United States 6.2 ‌ 6.2
Eurozone 2.8 ‌ 2.7
United Kingdom 4.0 ‌ 3.5
Japan 4.5 ‌ 3.0
China 13.3 ‌ 13

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2024F

2025F

United States[1] 2.8 ‌ 2.3
Eurozone 2.5 ‌ 2.3
United Kingdom 2.5 ‌ 2.4
Japan 2.3 ‌ 1.7
China 0.8   1.7

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2024F

2025F

United States 4.0   4.1
Eurozone 6.7 ‌ 6.5
United Kingdom 4.4   4.6
Japan 2.4 ‌ 2.4
China 5.0 ‌ 5.0

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current[2]

Mar 25F

United States 5.25-5.50 ‌ 4.50-4.75
Eurozone 4.00 ‌ 3.00
United Kingdom 5.25 ‌ 4.25
Japan -0.10   0.25
China 3.45 ‌ 3.30

Commodities (in dollars)

Current[2]

Mar 25F

Crude oil (Brent) 85.4 ‌ 84
Gold 2,162   2,400
Copper (LME) 8,888   9,500
Carbon 57   80

Equities

Stretching valuations

Current[3]

Mar 2025F

Forcast

Total Return (exp.)[4]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

5,150 ‌ 5,300 4.3% 8% -5% 1.5%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

506 ‌ 515 5.0% 5% -3% 3.3%

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

4,993 ‌ 5,000 3.3% 4% -3% 3.2%

Germany
(DAX)[5]

17,942 ‌ 18,700 4.2% 4% -3% 3.2%

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

7,743 ‌ 7,600 2.1% -1% -1% 3.9%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

11,721 ‌ 11,450 0.7% 9% -11% 3.0%

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

1,643 ‌ 1,740 8.2% 11% -5% 2.3%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(USD)

1,049 ‌ 1,050 3.2% 12% -12% 2.9%

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index
(USD)

662 ‌ 675 4.8% 15% -13% 2.6%

F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 03/14/24

Fixed Income

Normalisation of the curve

Current[2]

Mar 2025F

United States
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 4.29%   4.20%
U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[6]  231 bp   225 bp
U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] 86 bp   85 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates[6] 302 bp   400 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] 149 bp   120 bp 
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) 2.43%   2.60%
UK Gilts (10-year) 4.09%   4.20%
Euro investment-grade corporates[8] 110 bp   95 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[8] 338 bp   400 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[8] 65 bp   55 bp
Italy (10-year)[8] 127 bp   180 bp
Asia-Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year) 0.78%   0.90%
Asia credit 234 bp   210 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 355 bp   390 bp

Currencies

Current[2]

Mar 2025F

EUR vs. USD 1.09   1.10
USD vs. JPY 148   145
EUR vs. GBP 0.85   0.86
GBP vs. USD 1.28 ‌ 1.28
USD vs. CNY 7.19   7.35


F refers to our forecasts as of 03/14/2024
WTI = West Texas Intermediate
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend   or a downward trend  .
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  positive return potential for long-only investors.  limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  negative return potential for long-only investors.

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1. core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

2. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 03/14/24

3. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 03/14/24

4. Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable

5. Total-return index (includes dividends)

6. Spread over U.S. Treasuries

7. Bloomberg Barclays MBS Forward Index

8. Spread over German Bunds

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