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Never since the 1940s have so many U.S. job openings coincided with so few job seekers. This help explain why the Fed is likely to continue its hawkishly cautious stance.
Monetary aggregates can help increase accuracy in inflation forecasts. It is nice to see such ideas finally catching on again, but don’t get carried away either.
By: David Bianco
Manufacturing & Digital recession = S&P 500 profit recession, but not for jobs
The start of the war a year ago caused markets to plummet, as did expectations. Recently, these were mostly exceeded in Europe. How long can the markets thrive on this?
Market participants appear to feel far more certain than the ECB itself that they already know what interest rates will be appropriate. We try to explain why.
By: Björn Jesch
Our monthly market analysis and positioning
For now, there are good reasons for the Bank of Japan to remain fairly relaxed about any potential wage-price spiral.
Super profits of 2021-2022: New norms or exceptional circumstances?
Investors began the year in quite a relaxed mood and there are some good reasons for that. But it would be premature to be too confident about the prospects for the year as a whole.
A long year ahead and opportunity cash now pays interest: Be patient!
By: Michael Lewis
Recap of the World Climate Summit 2022
A giant leap into the Year of the Rabbit for China
Last year was unusual in market participants proving quite prescient in predicting U.S. interest rates. Paradoxically, that probably makes a repeat in 2023 less likely.
Younger investors might have been caught off guard by the recent outperformance of European stocks versus their U.S. peers. We think it may well continue.
