Aug 06, 2024 Europa

European High Yield for Allocators

Evaluating the use of European high yield within an investment portfolio

Jason Chen

Jason Chen

Senior Portfolio Strategist
  • Investing strategically into high yield corporate bonds can help to supplement yield or income objectives or help to diversify away from traditional stock/bond risks.
  • Historically, the higher quality segment of this market has realized better risk-adjusted returns, where inclusion of lower quality names can provide more potential upside particularly in risk-on markets.
  • European High Yield returns have historically been quite resilient even in slow economic growth environments. Even in modest negative growth quarters, returns have averaged between 1.5 and 2 percent, or rough 6 to 8 percent per annum over the past 2 decades.
  • While distressed market environments can introduce significant price volatility, subsequent returns following periods of spread widening have, on average, fared well for higher yield investments.

Historically, investors have looked to fixed income markets to access higher quality, fixed rate returns to either supplement yield or income objectives or to help diversify away from traditional equity risks that often dominate portfolios. The growth and expansion of credit markets in the past couple of decades has resulted in the tremendous growth of speculative-grade credit, now more commonly known as high yield. Once considered to be a more exotic, non-core fixed income asset class, the European high yield market has matured into a deep, liquid asset class that is now well-diversified across industries and issuers and now serves an important strategic and tactical purpose within most investor portfolios across the risk spectrum. As corporate bond markets have matured, the expansion into higher yielding fixed income has resulted in tremendous growth and maturation of the high yield market in Europe as a core exposure for fixed income investors.

This paper seeks to provide the reader with a broad overview of the Euro high yield market, highlighting the strategic and tactical cases for high yield investing as well as addressing questions around liquidity and market technicals, fundamentals around long-term defaults, characteristics of different segments of the high yield market, and how to think about the component risks of high yield bonds. The main areas of focus of this paper can be summarized into four categories:

  1. Strategic Allocations: What is the strategic risk and return case for high yield within a portfolio, and what is a reasonable credit risk premium to be demanded by high yield investors?
  2. Characteristics: What are the underlying characteristics of the high yield market, broken down by industry and by quality? How might shifting allocations based on industry or credit rating impact risk and return characteristics?
  3. Market Timing: On a more tactical basis, when has it historically made more sense to be opportunistically overweight high yield as an asset class?

Component Risks: Between the credit spread and risk-free treasury yield, how have these component risks interacted or contributed to the total risk of the asset class?

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Please note certain information in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements. Due to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions made in our analysis, actual events or results or the actual performance of the markets covered by this presentation report may differ materially from those described. The information herein reflects our current views only, is subject to change, and is not intended to be promissory or relied upon by the reader. There can be no certainty that events will turn out as we have opined herein. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, views and hypothetical models or analyses, which might prove inaccurate or incorrect.

For Professional Clients (MiFID Directive 2014/65/EU Annex II) only. For Qualified Investors (Art. 10 Para. 3 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA)). For Qualified Clients (Israeli Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law 5755-1995). Outside the U.S. for Institutional investors only. In the United States and Canada, for institutional client and registered representative use only. Not for retail distribution. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. In Australia and New Zealand: For Wholesale Investors only. For Asia For institutional investors only. *For investors in Bermuda: This is not an offering of securities or interests in any product. Such securities may be offered or sold in Bermuda only in compliance with the provisions of the Investment Business Act of 2003 of Bermuda which regulates the sale of securities in Bermuda.

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