China’s rescue mission

Can the recent policy measures save China’s growth target?

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Economic Overview

Jun 12, 2020 Macro

CIO Special: Fiscal packages – necessary short term, dangerous long term

By: Martin Moryson

The long-term impacts of the Covid-19 emergency fiscal packages will be challenging

Government bonds, Fixed Income, Politics, Global, Macro
Apr 02, 2020 Macro

Coronavirus: Deep recession, but no depression

By: Martin Moryson

The economic slowdown in the first half of 2020 will be unprecedented. In our core scenario, we expect a rebound in the second half.

Macro, Politics, Global
Jan 24, 2020 Elections

An early roadmap to U.S. politics in 2020 and beyond

By: Peter Doralt

We take an initial stroll along the campaign trail heading towards the U.S. elections in November – and tell you what potential signals to listen up for in all the noise likely to head your way.

Americas, Elections, Politics, Macro
Jan 22, 2020 Macro

U.S.-China trade deal: the easy step is done. And now?

By: Elke Speidel-Walz

U.S.-Chinese "phase-one deal": Ceasefire in the trade war, but nothing more. Tariffs remain much higher than they were. What's next?

Americas, Asia & Pacific, Macro
Nov 07, 2019 Macro

European fiscal stimulus? Don't get your hopes up!

By: Martin Moryson

While German fiscal policy is fairly expansionary by its own standards, requests for more fiscal stimulus are mounting. Without a serious recession in sight we don't expect much more.

Europa, Politics, Macro
Sep 24, 2019 Macro

Japan: tax hike unlikely to harm economy

By: Johannes Müller

After a long struggle, Japan is raising its consumption tax on October 1. Although this will weigh on the economy, we do not believe that it should cause a drastic slump as in 2014.

Politics, Asia & Pacific, Macro

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