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Macro
Global growth rates converging
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 2.7 | | 2.0 |
| Eurozone | 0.7 | | 0.9 |
| United Kingdom | 1.0 | | 1.2 |
| Japan | -0.1 | | 1.2 |
| China | 4.9 | 4.2 | |
| World | 3.1 | | 3.1 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 6.6 | | 7.3 |
| Eurozone | 2.8 | | 3.0 |
| United Kingdom | 4.5 | | 3.7 |
| Japan | 6.0 | | 4.0 |
| China | 13.2 | | 13.1 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States[1] | 2.9 | | 2.4 |
| Eurozone | 2.3 | | 2.0 |
| United Kingdom | 2.5 | | 2.3 |
| Japan | 2.5 | | 2.0 |
| China | 0.5 | 1.3 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
| United States | 4.1 | 4.2 | |
| Eurozone | 6.4 | | 6.3 |
| United Kingdom | 4.4 | 4.5 | |
| Japan | 2.5 | | 2.4 |
| China | 5.1 | | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
December 25F |
|
| United States | 4.50-4.75 | | 3.75-4.00 |
| Eurozone | 3.25 | | 2.00 |
| United Kingdom | 4.75 | | 3.00 |
| Japan | 0.25 | 1.00 | |
| China | 3.10 | | 2.75 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[2] |
December 25F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 72.0 | | 69 |
| Gold | 2,571 | 2,800 | |
| Copper (LME) | 9,200 | 9,850 | |
| Carbon | 68 | 75 |
Equities
Positive thinking prevails
Current[3] |
December 2025FForecast |
Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
5,871 | | 6,500 | 12.1% | 12.2% | -1.5% | 1.4% |
|
Europe |
503 | | 525 | 8.5% | 6.0% | -1.1% | 3.6% |
|
Eurozone |
4,795 | | 4,950 | 7.5% | 6.0% | -2.0% | 3.5% |
|
Germany |
19,211 | | 20,500 | 7.2% | 6.6% | -2.5% | 3.0% |
|
United Kingdom |
8,064 | | 8,200 | 5.0% | 4.0% | -3.0% | 4.0% |
|
Switzerland |
11,627 | | 12,050 | 7.4% | 9.0% | -5.0% | 3.4% |
|
Japan |
1,671 | | 1,770 | 8.3% | 7.0% | -1.1% | 2.4% |
| 1,085 | | 1,200 | 13.5% | 11.0% | -0.4% | 2.9% | |
| 705 | | 770 | 11.8% | 11.0% | -1.8% | 2.6% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/15/24
Fixed Income
Yields without clear direction
Current[2] |
December 2025F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 4.44% | 4.50% | |
| U.S. municipal bonds[6] | 67 bp | 75 bp | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] | 74 bp | 85 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[6] | 266 bp | 325 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6] | 142 bp | 120 bp | |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.36% | 2.20% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.47% | 4.00% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[7] | 98 bp | 95 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[7] | 323 bp | 400 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[7] | 50 bp | 50 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[7] | 120 bp | 150 bp | |
Asia- Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 1.07% | 1.40% | |
| Asia credit | 133 bp | 125 bp | |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 333 bp | 390 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
