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By: Martin Moryson
The economic slowdown in the first half of 2020 will be unprecedented. In our core scenario, we expect a rebound in the second half.
In March the longest U.S. bull market finally ended. And was almost forgotten as the coronavirus pandemic, trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus, and curfews took over.
In February stocks and bonds dived from their record heights. The global spread of the coronavirus seems to be dictating the responses of central banks, economies and markets.
After a turbulent start to the year, investors may be asking themselves whether to buy into the weakness or hedge their positions further? Or do both?
By: Peter Doralt
We take an initial stroll along the campaign trail heading towards the U.S. elections in November – and tell you what potential signals to listen up for in all the noise likely to head your way.
By: Darwei Kung
Finally a phase-one deal – and now?
By: Elke Speidel-Walz
U.S.-Chinese "phase-one deal": Ceasefire in the trade war, but nothing more. Tariffs remain much higher than they were. What's next?
There were clear factors behind the year-end rally which in 2019 brought one of the best returns since 1990. However, the risk of short-term setbacks has therefore become greater.
The year-end rally has already started. Everybody seems to be on board, and central banks continue to be happy to help.
A united OPEC and trade headlines
While German fiscal policy is fairly expansionary by its own standards, requests for more fiscal stimulus are mounting. Without a serious recession in sight we don't expect much more.
October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how untroubled markets can be when central banks keep serving them monetary cocktails.
Volatile times ahead
By: Johannes Müller
The abrupt repo-rate increase shouldn't have come as a surprise to the Fed. While short-term factors played a role, long-term bugs need to be addressed.
After a few tumultuous months, September proved relatively calm. Time to tweak some of our strategies.
