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By: David Bianco
Further tightening required: Fed Funds rate ex-ceeding 5% raises many risks
Will Silicon Valley Bank’s insolvency spill over into broader markets?
All forecasts at a glance
By: Björn Jesch
We do not expect a bad investment year. But the all-important development of interest rates and inflation could continue to cause surprises.
Inflation looks set to remain quite sticky, with more interest rate hikes to come. This makes for a rather challenging environment for many risky assets.
By: Michael Lewis, Maria Milina, Richard Marshall
Policies to electrify European roads
The Chinese economy is on track for stronger growth in 2023
By: Christian Scherrmann
Labor market tightness and its implications for monetary policy
Never since the 1940s have so many U.S. job openings coincided with so few job seekers. This help explain why the Fed is likely to continue its hawkishly cautious stance.
Monetary aggregates can help increase accuracy in inflation forecasts. It is nice to see such ideas finally catching on again, but don’t get carried away either.
Manufacturing & Digital recession = S&P 500 profit recession, but not for jobs
The start of the war a year ago caused markets to plummet, as did expectations. Recently, these were mostly exceeded in Europe. How long can the markets thrive on this?
Market participants appear to feel far more certain than the ECB itself that they already know what interest rates will be appropriate. We try to explain why.
Our monthly market analysis and positioning
For now, there are good reasons for the Bank of Japan to remain fairly relaxed about any potential wage-price spiral.
