Of Bund yields and paradigm shifts

In 2023, occasionally looking at an issue through pre-2010 paradigms might be quite helpful. Yields on German government bonds are a case in point.

November surprises

By: Björn Jesch, Peter Doralt, Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

What to expect, as we head into the homestretch of another U.S. electoral nailbiter

Not quite Taylored fit

When and how far U.S. interest rates should fall is quite a judgement call. Simple monetary-policy rules provide quite a wide range of plausible estimates.

Not an easy year, but one with alternatives

By: Björn Jesch

Even if this year's extreme developments do not recur in 2023, there will be no lack of challenges. But investors at least have more possibilities as bonds revive.

No pressure, no diamonds: Letter to our investors

By: Paul Kelly

Global Head of Alternatives | Paul Kelly

No more tailwind from money supply

For a year now, equity markets have been running ahead of the money supply. You can look at it one way or another, but stocks have one less stimulus to benefit from.

Massively growing demand for natural resources

Increasing consumption in modern consumer society poses an ever-growing global challenge.

Markets won’t regret change of German government

Even if the global economic cycle and new U.S. policies might dominate markets in the short term, a change of government could provide new impetus for German equities.

Markets hardly impressed by the Ukraine war

The start of the war a year ago caused markets to plummet, as did expectations. Recently, these were mostly exceeded in Europe. How long can the markets thrive on this?

Markets are barely reacting to the sharp change in the German Federal election odds. Rightly so?

By: Martin Moryson

Making the electric car revolution work

Charging points for electric vehicles are emerging as an increasingly interesting segment infrastructure investors should keep an eye on.

Making sense of commodity price forecasts

Geopolitical risk adds yet another layer of complexity to understanding commodity prices. In terms of forecast accuracy, though, it’s all about the vol.

Little growth, much uncertainty, decent returns

By: Björn Jesch

Over a twelve-month horizon, we expect decent overall returns across many asset classes despite lackluster economic growth and sticky inflation.

Lessons from the U.S. repo-market turmoil

By: Johannes Müller

The abrupt repo-rate increase shouldn't have come as a surprise to the Fed. While short-term factors played a role, long-term bugs need to be addressed.

Lending squeeze, rather than credit crunch

For a change, Europe’s banking sector appears in reasonably good shape. That’s good news, not least as supranational decision-making remains fragmented.