- Home »
- Insights »
- CIO View »
- CIO View Quarterly »
- Our forecasts
Macro
Mild down- and mild upturn
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 0.7 | ‌ | 1.1 |
| Eurozone | 0.8 | ‌ | 1.1 |
| United Kingdom | -0.5 | ‌ | 1.1 |
| Japan | 1.0 | ‌ | 0.8 |
| China | 5.5 | Â | 5.3 |
| World | 2.7 | ‌ | 3.1 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 4.3 | ‌ | 4.5 |
| Eurozone | 3.6 | ‌ | 2.9 |
| United Kingdom | 6.0 | ‌ | 4.0 |
| Japan | 6.0 | ‌ | 3.5 |
| China | 7.2 | ‌ | 6.5 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States[1] | 3.9 | ‌ | 2.4 |
| Eurozone | 5.7 | ‌ | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 6.4 | ‌ | 2.5 |
| Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 1.7 |
| China | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 4.2 | Â | 4.7 |
| Eurozone | 6.7 | ‌ | 6.7 |
| United Kingdom | 4.2 | Â | 4.1 |
| Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.4 |
| China | 5.2 | ‌ | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Mar 2024F |
|
| United States | 4.50-4.75 | Â | 5.25-5.50 |
| Eurozone | 2.50 | Â | 4.00 |
| United Kingdom | 4.00 | Â | 4.25 |
| Japan | 0.00 | Â | 0.10 |
| China | 3.65 | Â | 3.65 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[3] |
Mar 2024F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 86.2 | Â | 100 |
| Gold | 1,847 | Â | 1,940 |
| Copper (LME) | 8,921 | Â | 9,250 |
Equities
Little more than dividends
Current[4] |
Mar 2024F |
Total Return (exp.)[5] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
4,048 | ‌ | 4,100 | 2.6% | 1% | -1% | 1.8% |
|
Europe |
464 | ‌ | 480 | 6.9% | 2% | 2% | 3.4% |
|
Eurozone |
4,314 | ‌ | 4,350 | 4.2% | 0% | 1% | 3.4% |
|
Germany |
15,654 | ‌ | 16,300 | 4.1% | 1% | -1% | 3.3% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,930 | ‌ | 8,100 | 6.2% | -1% | 3% | 4.1% |
|
Switzerland |
11,147 | ‌ | 11,100 | 2.8% | 20% | -21% | 3.3% |
|
Japan |
1,241 | ‌ | 1,250 | 4.3% | 3% | -1% | 2.6% |
| 994 | ‌ | 1,020 | 6.4% | -1% | 4% | 3.2% | |
| 644 | ‌ | 670 | 7.2% | 3% | 1% | 2.7% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/17/22
Fixed Income
Yields might increase before decreasing
Current[2] |
Mar 2024F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 3.96% | Â | 4.30% |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7] | Â 231 bp | Â | 245 bp |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[7] | 112 bp | Â | 110 bp |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[7] | 389 bp | Â | 450 bp |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] | 40 bp |  | 35 bp |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.75% | Â | 2.90% |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 3.87% | Â | 3.60% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[9] | 144 bp | Â | 110 bp |
| Euro high-yield corporates[9] | 414 bp | Â | 420 bp |
| Securitized: covered bonds[9] | 70 bp | Â | 70 bp |
| Italy (10-year)[9] | 183 bp | Â | 220 bp |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.51% | Â | 0.75% |
| Asia credit | 267 bp | Â | 250 bp |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 442 bp | Â | 470 bp |
| Emerging-market credit | 322 bp | Â | 350 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: Â positive return potential for long-only investors. Â limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. Â negative return potential for long-only investors.
