Little growth, much uncertainty, decent returns

By: Björn Jesch

Over a twelve-month horizon, we expect decent overall returns across many asset classes despite lackluster economic growth and sticky inflation.

Our forecasts

All forecasts at a glance

Dividend stocks – all-rounder in tricky times

By: Björn Jesch

The relatively calm markets of the past two months should not hide a certain disorientation among investors, reflecting the great uncertainties on the economy and inflation. Dividend stocks may help investors weather economic storms.

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

Stubborn inflation, deteriorating US fiscal health to curb bonds and stocks

European bank bonds show surprising anxiety

Europe’s bank sector has proven resilient since the Credit Suisse rescue but AT1 bonds have still not fully recovered – making them all the more attractive, in our view.

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

No ceiling, no landing: 3-5% inflation cruising altitude

Dialing up climate finance to emerging markets

How World Bank reforms might help attract more private sector capital, which is urgently needed to meet greenhouse gas emission targets

That latest debt-ceiling drama

By: Björn Jesch

We remain confident that a small deal can get struck in time, paving the way for more deals later

U.S. Economic Outlook

By: Christian Scherrmann

Slowing down the U.S. Economy

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

Surviving tribulations of beta management: Be patient and busy elsewhere

Are the industry and the Dax going their separate ways?

The latest order intake and production figures of the German industry seem discouraging at first glance. At second glance, things look less dire.

Investment Traffic Lights

By: Björn Jesch

Our monthly market analysis and positioning

That perennial de-dollarization debate

Given how entrenched the greenback’s position is in international trade and finance, this probably won’t be the last debate on de-dollarization.

Artificial Intelligence – The Journey Begins

The first quarter of 2023 will likely go down in history as the time when the world became aware that the “cognitive” abilities of information machines hit a tipping point.

What U.S. interest rates are (and aren’t) telling us

According to futures markets, investors expect Fed rate cuts starting in September. We think this prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.