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By: Christian Scherrmann
Slowing down the U.S. Economy
Labor market tightness and its implications for monetary policy
Amidst the excitement in markets about the strong growth performance of the U.S. economy, some nuance seems in order.
Recession looks likely to be avoided this time
Far fewer companies use ‘shadow’ internal water prices than carbon prices to guide business decisions.
By: Björn Jesch
Corporate bonds are currently in high demand. Despite already expensive spreads, in our opinion there is no trend reversal to be feared due to a healthy environment.
By: Martin Moryson
Is inflation back? Is its current rise permanent or just temporary? And what are the implications of reviving inflation for the capital markets?
With inflation likely to remain sticky and unpredictable, both listed and non-listed real estate look like increasingly reasonable alternatives to other asset classes.
Based on current trajectories, Europe’s 2030 greenhouse-gas-emission ambitions are in jeopardy. To meet its targets, Europe needs to dial up decarbonization efforts.
Drivers for German growth are likely to remain scarce in 2024. The notoriously stingy German consumer might help out.
There are good reasons European monetary policymakers appear increasingly confident of reaching their inflation target of 2% again in the not-too-distant future.
Given how entrenched the greenback’s position is in international trade and finance, this probably won’t be the last debate on de-dollarization.
We remain confident that a small deal can get struck in time, paving the way for more deals later
Look beyond partisan finger pointing. When it comes to U.S. fiscal policy, policymakers are already starting to adjust to the swiftest rate hiking cycle in living memory.
Inflation looks set to remain quite sticky, with more interest rate hikes to come. This makes for a rather challenging environment for many risky assets.
