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Short-term we see only a small chance of a sustainable countermove
Recent strong wage growth among lowly paid, young job switchers may reflect them moving into potentially more productive jobs. Such gains need not be inflationary.
Market participants appear to feel far more certain than the ECB itself that they already know what interest rates will be appropriate. We try to explain why.
Last year was unusual in market participants proving quite prescient in predicting U.S. interest rates. Paradoxically, that probably makes a repeat in 2023 less likely.
According to futures markets, investors expect Fed rate cuts starting in September. We think this prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Even after the Fed's first rate cut, the momentum of cash inflows remains high
By: Martin Moryson
By: Björn Jesch
Strong performance of the "Magnificent Seven" has pushed value stocks into the background - wrongly so?
By: Elke Speidel-Walz
U.S.-Chinese "phase-one deal": Ceasefire in the trade war, but nothing more. Tariffs remain much higher than they were. What's next?
U.S. money market funds (MMFs) have experienced massive inflows since the end of 2022. At just above USD 6 trillion, they currently stand at an all-time high
By: Peter Doralt
The upcoming U.S. elections could be remembered as the most important since 1980.
By: Christian Scherrmann
Time has come to engineer that soft landing.
Why the Fed will cut rates – sooner or maybe later.
Next stop lower rates? Not so fast, hopefully!
Slowing down the U.S. Economy
